Crescent MoonSighting Predictions
MapsPredictionsCitiesCountriesNext 12 MonthsCalendarEventsHistoryObservationsAI ChatAboutContact
Moon Sighting

Islamic crescent moon visibility predictions powered by astronomical calculations and machine learning.

Top Cities

  • New York
  • Los Angeles
  • Chicago
  • Toronto
  • London
  • Istanbul
  • Makkah
  • Dubai
  • Riyadh
  • Cairo
  • Karachi
  • Lahore
  • Dhaka
  • Jakarta
  • Mumbai
  • Kuala Lumpur
  • Tehran
  • Houston
  • Dearborn
  • Nairobi

Data Sources

  • JPL DE421 Ephemeris (NASA)
  • CrescentWatch.org observations
  • MoonSighting.org.co.uk observations
  • Chicago Hilal Committee observations
  • Skyfield astronomical library

Methodology

  • 7 astronomical visibility parameters
  • ML Random Forest model
  • 2,000+ historical training records
Feedback & Feature Requests

Moon Sighting Project · Astronomical predictions are estimates and should be used alongside traditional moon sighting practices

Sighting Predictions

Astronomical calculations powered by NASA JPL ephemeris data and machine learning, trained on 2,000+ historical observations.

Loading...

Search by US zip code or city name. Outside the US, tap My Location to use your current coordinates.

Regional Cities

View predictions for 290+ cities across 12 regions worldwide

Islamic Calendar

Upcoming Islamic month predictions for your location

Islamic Events

Ramadan, Eid, and other key Islamic dates with Hilal predictions

Historical Records

Explore 2,000+ historical moon sighting observations

Popular Cities

New York CityLos AngelesChicagoHoustonDallasTorontoLondonParisIstanbulMakkahDubaiRiyadhCairoKarachiLahoreIslamabadDhakaMumbaiJakartaKuala Lumpur
View all 290+ cities

How Hilal Visibility Predictions Work

Our moon sighting predictions combine precise astronomical calculations with machine learning to determine when the crescent moon (Hilal) will be visible after a new moon conjunction. Using NASA JPL DE421 ephemeris data processed through the Skyfield library, we compute five key parameters at sunset for any location: moonset lag, moon age, moon altitude, sun-moon elongation, and lunar illumination percentage.

These parameters feed into a Random Forest model trained on over 2,000 historical sighting reports from CrescentWatch.org, MoonSighting.org.uk, and Chicago Hilal Committee spanning two decades. The model outputs a confidence percentage that maps to one of six visibility labels — from "Very Likely" to "Unlikely" — helping communities plan for the start of Islamic months like Ramadan, Shawwal, and Dhul Hijjah.

Key Astronomical Factors

  • Moonset Lag — time between sunset and moonset; longer lag means more viewing time
  • Moon Age — hours elapsed since new moon conjunction
  • Moon Altitude — angular height of the moon above the horizon at sunset
  • Elongation — angular separation between the sun and moon
  • Illumination — percentage of the moon's surface that is lit

Confidence Levels

  • Very Likely (75%+) — crescent easily visible to the naked eye
  • Likely (55–74%) — visible under normal conditions
  • Possible (40–54%) — visible with clear skies and an unobstructed horizon
  • Difficult (25–39%) — may require binoculars or experienced observers
  • Very Difficult (10–24%) — challenging even with optical aid
  • Unlikely (<10%) — crescent not expected to be visible

Worldwide Coverage

Predictions are available for any location worldwide. Enter a US zip code, or use the "My Location" button for automatic geolocation. We also provide pre-computed predictions for over 290 cities across 12 regions including the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, the Indian Sub-Continent, the Americas, Central Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Each prediction accounts for the observer's exact latitude, longitude, elevation, and local timezone.